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Although the MSCI All-Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% higher, it has lost about 8% since its July peak, leaving it about 7% ahead for the year. We are talking about the duration, rather than higher rates," Spencer said. The dollar index is up 12 weeks in a row, equalling a streak that ran from July to October 2014. The dollar index was steady on Friday at 106.38. Gold was also steady at $1,821 an ounce after nine days of losses driven by rising global bond yields.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nonfarm, Patrick Spencer, RW Baird, Spencer, YEN, Kyle Rodda, Huw Jones, Tom Westbrook, Shri Navaratnam, Clarence Fernandez, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Treasury, Global, Analysts, Tokyo's Nikkei, London, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Japan
The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA
U.S. stock index futures , , were little changed. The dollar was set to clock up its best winning streak since 2014, bolstered by a resilient run of U.S. economic data. In contrast, the yuan fell to its weakest level since 2007 on worries about China's slowing economy. "Everything is geared towards the next couple of weeks, with European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England meeting. Stocks sought to stabilise after a week of easing, with the MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) slightly weaker at 676.83 points, and down about 1.5% for the week so far, though still up nearly 12% for the year.
Persons: Toby Melville, Mike Hewson, Stocks, Patrick Spencer, Spencer, YUAN, Masato Kanda, Hirokazu Matsuno, Brent, Heekyong Yang, Shri Navaratnam, Tomasz Janowski, David Evans Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Stocks, Apple, Investors, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, CMC, U.S, Consumer, Baird, ANZ Bank, Treasury, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, United States, Europe, U.S, Seoul
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The yen weakened 1.19% to 141.77 per dollar, while the dollar index , a measure of the greenback against major trading currencies, rose 0.31%. "None of them are happening with massive severity, but the longer we go on with higher rates, more and more that's going to come through," he said. BOJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing yield control policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. "Markets were building up expectations which now look unlikely to play out," said Guillaume Paillat, a multi-asset manager at Aviva Investors.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, BoJ, Dow, Garrett Melson, Mullarkey, Patrick Spencer, Guillaume Paillat, Brent, Herbert Lash, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Conor Humphries, David Holmes, Marguerita Choy, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Nasdaq, Investment, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, SLC Management, Baird, Microsoft, Apple, NYSE, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, London, MSCI's U.S, Europe, China, Sydney
Gold prices slipped as the dollar rebounded to its highest level in more than a week as investors prepare for next week's big central bank policy meetings, including the BoJ, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The yen weakened 1.13% to 141.68 per dollar, while the dollar index , a measure of the greenback against major trading currencies, rose 0.36%. BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing yield control policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. As Japanese inflation has stayed above the BoJ's target, traders have bet on the central bank ditching its yield curve control program, a move likely to cause the yen to strengthen.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, BoJ, Garrett Melson, Patrick Spencer, Spencer, you've, Guillaume Paillat, Brent, Herbert Lash, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Conor Humphries, David Holmes, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Investment, Nasdaq, Baird, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, NYSE, Aviva Investors, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boston, Europe, China, London
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, June 29, 2023. REUTERS/StaffLONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Global shares stocks were firmer on Friday after data showed that inflation in the euro zone continued to fall this month, and attention turned to U.S. prices figures before the opening bell on Wall Streeet. The dollar and U.S. stock index futures , were firm ahead of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index reading due at 1230 GMT, the Fed's favoured inflation gauge. Euro zone inflation fell to 5.5% in June as the cost of fuel tumbled, with Germany the only country to report an increase, with the European Central Bank still on course for a ninth consecutive rate hike next month, sending euro zone government bond yields higher.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Patrick Spencer, Baird, Spencer, Shunichi Suzuki, Rob Carnell, Hong, Brent, Gold, Huw Jones, Ankur Banerjee, Stephen Coates, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, Global, U.S, Federal, European Central Bank, ECB, ING, Big Tech, Finance, Nikkei, Strong U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S, Europe, CHINA, Asia, China, Pacific, Japan, Shanghai, Strong
Oil was firmer but still heading for another monthly decline after disappointing U.S. economic data and uncertainty over interest rates. The yen fell to a nine-year low against the euro after the Bank of Japan left its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged. The euro zone grew only marginally in the first three months of 2023, and at a rate lower than market expectations, sending the euro lower. "Futures are saying interest rates will be lower than Fed Funds by year end, indicating a decline. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
But after a two-week storm which had analysts and investors rushing to rework their spreadsheets, the outlook is clouded. And the ructions have left the gap between the ratios of European and U.S. banks at its narrowest since September 2017. Reflecting concerns over the stability of the sector, bank shares are set for an almost 15% monthly drop in March, after five consecutive months of gains. European bank earnings growth expectations'UNLIKELY TO BUY'Other investors see pressure on European bank earnings as they anticipate the euro zone economy will slow down. Also in the calculation mix is the ECB's campaign to raise interest rates to tackle rising inflation, which had previously been a boon for euro zone lenders.
Meanwhile, extremely wide forecasts for new public borrowing requirements make the outlook for government bonds uncertain. Here are the main budget predictions for UK stocks, gilts and the pound. However NatWest analysts flagged that the OBR will likely revise down growth forecasts for the next five years, making the outlook for interest rates finely balanced. Hunt will likely keep the budget "reasonably dull" after Truss's "mini-budget" sent sterling to its lowest on record, she added. Investors in UK stocks are already grappling with a wide valuation gap with U.S. equities.
Ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data on Friday, MSCI's broad index of global stocks (.MIWO00000PUS) fell 0.3%. This view has clashed with market repricing of interest rate expectations and bond market signals that aggressive monetary tightening raises recession risks. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. U.S. Treasury yields continued an ascent on Wednesday, with the two-year yield, which tracks interest rate expectations, briefly touching 5.08% -- its highest level since 2007. After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points last month.
Stocks will likely see strong disinflationary trends, Baird says
  + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStocks will likely see strong disinflationary trends, Baird saysPatrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities and managing director at Baird, says that's despite a "short-term concern about a resurgence of inflation."
Baird discusses the outlook for markets in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket is telling you that the economy's not going to be as bad as expected: Financial services firmPatrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities and managing director at Baird, discusses the outlook for markets in 2023.
[1/2] The Wall Street entrance to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is seen in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. U.S. stocks edged higher in early trading, indicating a cautious start on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.07%. The U.S. consumer price index for November is due on Tuesday, when a slowdown in core annual inflation is anticipated. Two-year yields, which typically move in step with interest rate expectations, rose just 1.4 basis points to 4.342%.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategist says markets are in a bottoming process and investors can rotate back into some stocksPatrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities at Baird, discusses the outlook for financial markets and says he believes Europe is “good value” despite “a lot of doom and gloom.”
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